🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crystal Palace and Chelsea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace and Chelsea finished level at 1-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.33 xG and Chelsea 1.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Chelsea attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 25% | Draw 26% | Chelsea 49%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 53%, Chelsea 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights