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Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Brighton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Brighton 2-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.72 xG and Brighton 1.72 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Brighton attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 22% | Brighton 39%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 49%, Brighton 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG, Brighton 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights