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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crystal Palace run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Aston Villa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 4-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.44 xG and Aston Villa 1.36 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Aston Villa attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 36%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Aston Villa 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Aston Villa's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Aston Villa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights