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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 1-5 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.03 xG and Arsenal 1.44 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Arsenal outscored their 1.44 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Arsenal attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 25% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 44%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 52%, Arsenal 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Arsenal's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights