Coventry 3-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sunderland make the trip to Coventry Building Society Arena to face Coventry in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coventry have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coventry's home record at Coventry Building Society Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sunderland (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Coventry, 1.10 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Coventry 3W, Sunderland 1W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 54% versus Sunderland 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 61% | Sunderland 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 0.818 / defence 1.345 | Sunderland attack 1.009 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.229. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Coventry's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Coventry games / 46 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 34% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 41%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 50% | Sunderland 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 34% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Coventry 1.50 / Sunderland 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 0.818 / def 1.345 | Sunderland attack 1.009 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sunderland xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Sunderland kick off?
Coventry vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Coventry 3 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Coventry vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Sunderland part of?
Coventry vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 34% chance of winning, Sunderland a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Coventry and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Sunderland?
Record (8 meetings): Coventry 3W | Draws 4 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Coventry and Sunderland in?
Coventry (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coventry's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.01x) against Coventry's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
34%
2.97
25%
3.97
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Coventry xG
Total xG
3.16
1.67
Sunderland xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Coventry and 1.67 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coventry come into this having played 46 games, going 26W 7D 13L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.28 PPG from 46 outings (15W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coventry carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Sunderland — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coventry's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coventry are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 26W 7D 13L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Sunderland away?
Coventry's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 2.17 PPG; Sunderland away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Coventry or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sunderland in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won 0-3 on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coventry
4
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Sunderland?
From 9 meetings on record, Coventry have won 4, Sunderland have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Coventry 3-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Sunderland?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 56%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Coventry) and 44% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Coventry have failed to score in 26% of games; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Coventry's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Coventry's recent games and 44% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Sunderland tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Sunderland 3-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.50 xG and Sunderland 1.67 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Sunderland attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 34% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 41%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.