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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Wolves 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.30 xG and Wolves 1.32 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Wolves attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 58% | Draw 22% | Wolves 20%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 66%, Wolves 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights