🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out West Ham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat West Ham 2-1 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.99 xG and West Ham 1.05 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against West Ham attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 58% | Draw 23% | West Ham 18%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 67%, West Ham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.69 PPG, West Ham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights