🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Chelsea defy the odds to beat Tottenham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Tottenham 2-1 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.10 xG and Tottenham 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Chelsea beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Tottenham attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 29% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 41%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Chelsea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 60%, Tottenham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights