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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Chelsea 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Chelsea 1-2 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.38 xG and Sunderland 0.65 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Sunderland attack 0.59 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 54% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 17%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 59%, Sunderland 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.80 PPG, Sunderland 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights