🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chelsea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 1-3 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.09 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.82 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 / defence 0.90, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 21% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 53%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 60%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.62 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights