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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea and Leeds share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea and Leeds finished level at 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.11 xG and Leeds 1.03 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leeds outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Leeds attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 60% | Draw 25% | Leeds 15%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 59%, Leeds 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Leeds's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.78 PPG, Leeds 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights