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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Chelsea 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Chelsea 1-2 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.55 xG and Fulham 1.19 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 43% | Draw 30% | Fulham 27%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 67%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights