🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Chelsea cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Everton 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.18 xG and Everton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Everton attack 0.87 / defence 0.74, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 39% | Draw 30% | Everton 32%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 57%, Everton 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Everton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Chelsea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights