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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 27, as Chelsea and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.41 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 59%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.77 PPG, Burnley 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights