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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 19, as Chelsea and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.52 xG and Bournemouth 1.52 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Bournemouth attack 1.31 / defence 1.58, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 59% | Draw 18% | Bournemouth 22%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 57%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.75 PPG, Bournemouth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights