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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Chelsea 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Chelsea 1-2 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.71 xG and Aston Villa 1.32 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Aston Villa attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 47% | Draw 24% | Aston Villa 30%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Aston Villa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 56%, Aston Villa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Aston Villa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.78 PPG, Aston Villa 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights