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Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sunderland.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Sunderland 2-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.41 xG and Sunderland 1.31 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sunderland landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Sunderland attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 39% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 35%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sunderland's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights