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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Burnley 1-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.89 xG and Newcastle 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.63 / defence 1.10 against Newcastle attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 28% | Draw 30% | Newcastle 42%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Newcastle 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Newcastle's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.70 PPG, Newcastle 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights