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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Tue 30 Dec 2025

19:30

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Newcastle Win

28%

Burnley

3.56

30%

Draw

3.32

42%

Newcastle

2.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

15.0%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

0 – 0

13.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.89

Burnley xG

Total xG

2.04

1.15

Newcastle xG

28%
30%
42%
BurnleyDrawNewcastle

3.56

28%

Home win

3.32

30%

Draw

2.39

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.49

60%

BTTS No

1.67

Clean Sheet

32%

Burnley

3.16

41%

Newcastle

2.43

Win to Nil

9%

Burnley

11.27

17%

Newcastle

5.82

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.0 15.0 8.6 3.3 1.0 0.2
1 11.5 13.3 7.7 2.9 0.8 0.2
2 5.1 5.9 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
3 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.888
λ Away (xG) 1.152
Total xG 2.040
League avg home goals 1.512
League avg away goals 1.252
Burnley attack strength 0.633
Burnley defence strength 1.100
Newcastle attack strength 0.836
Newcastle defence strength 0.928
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 18 / 56