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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Wed 22 Apr 2026

20:00

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

13%

Burnley

7.62

24%

Draw

4.12

63%

Manchester City

1.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

12.3%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 2

12.0%

Away win

1 – 1

10.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.81

Burnley xG

Total xG

2.77

1.96

Manchester City xG

13%
24%
63%
BurnleyDrawManchester City

7.62

13%

Home win

4.12

24%

Draw

1.60

63%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.03

51%

BTTS No

1.98

Clean Sheet

14%

Burnley

7.07

44%

Manchester City

2.25

Win to Nil

2%

Burnley

53.85

28%

Manchester City

3.60

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 12.3 12.0 7.8 3.8 1.5
1 5.1 10.0 9.8 6.4 3.1 1.2
2 2.1 4.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.5
3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
5

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.812
λ Away (xG) 1.956
Total xG 2.768
League avg home goals 1.412
League avg away goals 1.249
Burnley attack strength 0.724
Burnley defence strength 1.313
Manchester City attack strength 1.192
Manchester City defence strength 0.794
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 33 / 70