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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Burnley 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.45 xG and Liverpool 1.64 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Liverpool attack 1.34 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 34% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 42%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 66% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Liverpool's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 2.10 PPG, Liverpool 2.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights