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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sun 14 Sep 2025

14:00

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Liverpool Win

34%

Burnley

2.95

24%

Draw

4.20

42%

Liverpool

2.37

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.9%

Away win

2 – 1

7.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Burnley xG

Total xG

3.09

1.64

Liverpool xG

34%
24%
42%
BurnleyDrawLiverpool

2.95

34%

Home win

4.20

24%

Draw

2.37

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.62

38%

BTTS No

2.61

Clean Sheet

19%

Burnley

5.16

24%

Liverpool

4.25

Win to Nil

7%

Burnley

15.19

10%

Liverpool

10.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6 7.5 6.1 3.4 1.4 0.5
1 6.6 10.8 8.9 4.9 2.0 0.7
2 4.8 7.8 6.4 3.5 1.4 0.5
3 2.3 3.8 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2
4 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.448
λ Away (xG) 1.640
Total xG 3.088
League avg home goals 1.375
League avg away goals 1.183
Burnley attack strength 0.965
Burnley defence strength 1.032
Liverpool attack strength 1.344
Liverpool defence strength 1.091
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 3 / 41