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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Burnley 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Burnley 2-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.22 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.60 / defence 1.04 against Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 31% | Draw 29% | Fulham 40%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Fulham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Fulham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights