Burnley 2-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Burnley, 0.90 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burnley 1W, Fulham 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fulham — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 36% versus Fulham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 38% | Fulham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.597 / defence 1.038 | Fulham attack 0.928 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.262. Burnley's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Burnley games / 53 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 29% | Fulham 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Fulham 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 29% | Fulham 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Burnley 1.04 / Fulham 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.597 / def 1.038 | Fulham attack 0.928 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Fulham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Fulham xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Fulham kick off?
Burnley vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Fulham?
Burnley 2 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Burnley vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Fulham part of?
Burnley vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 31% chance of winning, Fulham a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burnley and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Burnley and Fulham in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.60) and Fulham's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.93x) against Burnley's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.44
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.26
1.22
Fulham xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Burnley and 1.22 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 15D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 20W 11D 22L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (13W 9D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 9W 5D 12L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 68%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Fulham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 15D 12L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Fulham have gone 20W 11D 22L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Fulham away?
Burnley's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.85 PPG; Fulham away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Burnley or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Fulham in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fulham have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Fulham?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Fulham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fulham 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 27%, Fulham 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Burnley) and 54% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Burnley's recent matches and 69% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Burnley's recent games and 54% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Fulham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fulham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Burnley 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Burnley 2-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.22 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.60 / defence 1.04 against Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 31% | Draw 29% | Fulham 40%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Fulham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.