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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Fulham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Fulham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Burnley (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.

Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Burnley, 0.90 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burnley 1W, Fulham 0W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Burnley — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Fulham — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 36% versus Fulham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 38% | Fulham 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.597 / defence 1.038 | Fulham attack 0.928 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.262. Burnley's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Burnley games / 53 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 29% | Fulham 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Fulham 70%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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