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Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Burnley 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.76 xG and Crystal Palace 1.34 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Crystal Palace attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 50%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 37%, Crystal Palace 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.82 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights