🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Chelsea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.86 xG and Chelsea 1.48 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Chelsea attack 1.25 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 22% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 51%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 37%, Chelsea 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chelsea's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.90 PPG, Chelsea 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights