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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sat 14 Mar 2026

15:00

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bournemouth Win

26%

Burnley

3.81

24%

Draw

4.15

50%

Bournemouth

2.01

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

2 – 1

6.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Burnley xG

Total xG

3.44

2.01

Bournemouth xG

26%
24%
50%
BurnleyDrawBournemouth

3.81

26%

Home win

4.15

24%

Draw

2.01

50%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

67%

Over 2.5

1.49

33%

Under 2.5

3.03

45%

Over 3.5

2.22

55%

Under 3.5

1.82

26%

Over 4.5

3.85

74%

Under 4.5

1.35

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.49

33%

BTTS No

3.05

Clean Sheet

13%

Burnley

7.46

24%

Bournemouth

4.20

Win to Nil

4%

Burnley

28.41

12%

Bournemouth

8.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.2 6.4 6.4 4.3 2.2 0.9
1 4.6 9.2 9.2 6.2 3.1 1.2
2 3.3 6.6 6.6 4.4 2.2 0.9
3 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.4
4 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2
5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.435
λ Away (xG) 2.009
Total xG 3.444
League avg home goals 1.412
League avg away goals 1.303
Burnley attack strength 0.849
Burnley defence strength 1.383
Bournemouth attack strength 1.114
Bournemouth defence strength 1.197
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 29 / 67