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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, as Burnley and Aston Villa drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Aston Villa attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Aston Villa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.41 PPG, Aston Villa 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights