Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Aston Villa (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Burnley face Aston Villa.

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Analysis

Aston Villa make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Burnley at home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Aston Villa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Aston Villa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Aston Villa are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Aston Villa have the stronger record — 4 wins to Burnley's 0, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Burnley 1–2 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Aston Villa have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Aston Villa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Aston Villa 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.658 / defence 1.258 | Aston Villa attack 0.903 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.225. Burnley's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Burnley's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aston Villa's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 35 games and Aston Villa's last 73.

Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.05 | Draw 3.34 | Aston Villa 2.20. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 60% (last 10 away games).

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