🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Brighton edge out Liverpool 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Liverpool 2-1 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.30 xG and Liverpool 1.19 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Liverpool attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 37% | Draw 31% | Liverpool 32%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 59%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Brighton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights