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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Brighton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leeds.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Leeds 3-0 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 2.27 xG and Leeds 0.95 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Leeds landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Leeds attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 67% | Draw 18% | Leeds 14%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 70%, Leeds 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Leeds's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Brighton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brighton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights