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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Brighton and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 0.93 xG and Everton 0.96 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.65, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 30% | Draw 39% | Everton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 64%, Everton 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.49 PPG, Everton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights