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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Burnley 2-0 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 2.31 xG and Burnley 1.27 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Burnley attack 0.97 / defence 1.43, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 60% | Draw 21% | Burnley 19%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 67%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Burnley's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.51 PPG, Burnley 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Brighton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights