🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Brighton and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Brighton and Bournemouth drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 2.45 xG and Bournemouth 1.63 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brighton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Bournemouth attack 1.39 / defence 1.57, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 54% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 24%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 64%, Bournemouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.53 PPG, Bournemouth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights