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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Brighton defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Bournemouth 2-1 at American Express Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.45 xG and Bournemouth 1.58 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Bournemouth attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 35% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 41%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Brighton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 62%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.38 PPG, Bournemouth 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights