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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Brentford 0-2 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 2.52 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.49 / defence 1.19 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 55% | Draw 21% | Nottingham Forest 24%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 70%, Nottingham Forest 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.15 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights