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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brentford and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Brentford and Leeds drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 2.66 xG and Leeds 0.93 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Leeds attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 74% | Draw 15% | Leeds 11%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 60%, Leeds 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights