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Brentford cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat Burnley 3-1 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 2.92 xG and Burnley 1.30 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.23 / defence 1.05 against Burnley attack 1.04 / defence 1.53, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 71% | Draw 15% | Burnley 14%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 62%, Burnley 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Brentford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights