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Dominant Brentford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat Bournemouth 4-1 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 2.57 xG and Bournemouth 1.65 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Brentford beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Bournemouth attack 1.36 / defence 1.47, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 58% | Draw 18% | Bournemouth 24%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 58%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.44 PPG, Bournemouth 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights