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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Wolves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Wolves 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.42 xG and Wolves 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Wolves attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 26% | Wolves 32%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Wolves 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.44 PPG, Wolves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights