Bournemouth 0-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bournemouth (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bournemouth face Wolves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wolves make the trip to Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium.
Wolves have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolves have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bournemouth. A 0.90 PPG lead over Wolves (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bournemouth, 1 for Wolves and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 4–2 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wolves — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 60% and Wolves 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 65% | Wolves 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.96 xG and Wolves 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.015 / defence 0.668 | Wolves attack 0.961 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.526. Wolves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Bournemouth games / 63 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 60% | Draw 23% | Wolves 18%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Wolves 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 40% | Wolves 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 60% | Draw 23% | Wolves 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Bournemouth 1.96 / Wolves 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.015 / def 0.668 | Wolves attack 0.961 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wolves xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Wolves kick off?
Bournemouth vs Wolves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Wolves?
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Bournemouth vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Wolves part of?
Bournemouth vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 60% chance of winning, Wolves a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bournemouth and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Wolves?
Record (5 meetings): Bournemouth 3W | Draws 1 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Bournemouth and Wolves in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Wolves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.01) and Wolves's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolves's attack (0.96x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.41
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.94
0.98
Wolves xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
2%
40.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.98 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Wolves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 16D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.03 PPG from 63 outings (18W 11D 34L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bournemouth's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (7W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.35 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wolves in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Wolves in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Wolves have gone 18W 11D 34L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Wolves away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.55 PPG; Wolves away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bournemouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
1
Draws
2
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Wolves?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Wolves have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wolves 0-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Wolves?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 48%, Wolves 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Bournemouth and 74% for Wolves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Wolves in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Wolves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Bournemouth's games and 68% of Wolves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Bournemouth's matches and 74% of Wolves's.
Shock result as Wolves defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.96 xG and Wolves 0.98 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.01 / defence 0.67 against Wolves attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 60% | Draw 23% | Wolves 18%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Wolves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 65%, Wolves 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolves's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Wolves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.