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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Tottenham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Tottenham 3-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.20 xG and Tottenham 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Tottenham attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 34% | Draw 32% | Tottenham 35%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 59%, Tottenham 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.36 PPG, Tottenham 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights