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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Bournemouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and Newcastle finished level at 0-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.08 xG and Newcastle 0.80 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Newcastle attack 0.80 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 32% | Newcastle 27%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 55%, Newcastle 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Newcastle's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.55 PPG, Newcastle 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights