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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

14:00

Venue

Vitality Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bournemouth Win

42%

Bournemouth

2.40

32%

Draw

3.16

27%

Newcastle

3.76

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.5%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

15.4%

Draw

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.08

Bournemouth xG

Total xG

1.87

0.80

Newcastle xG

42%
32%
27%
BournemouthDrawNewcastle

2.40

42%

Home win

3.16

32%

Draw

3.76

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

56%

Over 1.5

1.79

44%

Under 1.5

2.27

29%

Over 2.5

3.45

71%

Under 2.5

1.41

12%

Over 3.5

8.33

88%

Under 3.5

1.14

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

36%

BTTS Yes

2.76

64%

BTTS No

1.57

Clean Sheet

45%

Bournemouth

2.22

34%

Newcastle

2.94

Win to Nil

19%

Bournemouth

5.31

9%

Newcastle

11.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.4 12.2 4.9 1.3 0.3
1 16.5 13.2 5.2 1.4 0.3
2 8.9 7.1 2.8 0.7 0.1
3 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.078
λ Away (xG) 0.796
Total xG 1.874
League avg home goals 1.393
League avg away goals 1.178
Bournemouth attack strength 0.976
Bournemouth defence strength 0.847
Newcastle attack strength 0.798
Newcastle defence strength 0.793
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42