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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and Manchester United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and Manchester United finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.25 xG and Manchester United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Manchester United attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 29% | Manchester United 29%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 65%, Manchester United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester United's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.37 PPG, Manchester United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights