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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and Manchester City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Bournemouth and Manchester City drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.39 xG and Manchester City 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Manchester City attack 1.21 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 35% | Draw 27% | Manchester City 38%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Manchester City 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights