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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Liverpool 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Liverpool 3-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.49 xG and Liverpool 1.46 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Liverpool attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 35% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights