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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and Leeds share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Bournemouth and Leeds drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.45 xG and Leeds 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leeds outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Leeds attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 43% | Draw 30% | Leeds 27%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Leeds 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.46 PPG, Leeds 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights