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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Fulham 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Fulham 1.31 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 67%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Fulham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.35 PPG, Fulham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights