Bournemouth 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fulham at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 April 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bournemouth, 1 for Fulham and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fulham in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and Fulham 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 67% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Fulham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.871 / defence 0.862 | Fulham attack 1.051 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.449. Data: 69 Bournemouth games / 69 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 40% | Fulham 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bournemouth 1.22 / Fulham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.871 / def 0.862 | Fulham attack 1.051 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Fulham xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 14 April 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 34% chance of winning, Fulham a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Bournemouth 2W | Draws 4 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fulham (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.87) and Fulham's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.31
Fulham xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.31 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 18D 26L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.38 PPG from 69 outings (26W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.35 PPG, Fulham on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 13W 9D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.48 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 25W 18D 26L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 17D 26L in their last 69 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.41 PPG; Fulham away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Fulham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 50%, Fulham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bournemouth's games and 65% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bournemouth's matches and 59% of Fulham's.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Fulham 1.31 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 67%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.35 PPG, Fulham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.